Would You Buy in Sydney Right Now, or Sit Out 2026? | NAPP Podcast S02E02

It is the question every Sydney buyer is actually asking, even when they dress it up as something else.

There is no shortage of noise on either side. This episode was recorded against a rising rate environment, stretched affordability, and a median price headline that makes the whole city look shut. Meanwhile the people who transact in this market every week keep pointing at the same thing: the fundamentals have not changed, and the opportunities are not evenly spread.

In Season 2, Episode 2 of Not Another Property Podcast, host Gianni Musumeci, investment advisor at Leverage Property Advisers, puts that question to four professionals who see it from four different angles: mortgage manager Mike O’Malley from Rate Money Sydney City, principal buyer’s agent Mark Horvat from The Acquiry, financial planner Andrew Chan from Phoenix Private Wealth Management, and property manager James Meldrum from BresicWhitney.

• 97% Sydney median house price growth, 2014 to 2024
• ~500% Growth across a 30 year view
• 2.4 to 2.7% Gross house rental yields, Balmain and Paddington

In this episode

• Who can still justify buying in Sydney once you apply current rates, borrowing limits and lender buffers;
• Why Sydney is a capital growth play rather than a yield play;
• The holding costs most investors underestimate, and why self-managing can end up costing more;
• How to strip the emotion out of a Sydney purchase and decide on your actual non-negotiables;
• What goes into a proper buy versus rent model, including land tax, negative gearing and capital gains tax scenarios;
• Geographic scarcity, natural borders and why the panel keeps calling Sydney the Ferrari of Australian real estate; or
• Where the panel thinks the 2026 opportunities actually sit.

Who was weighing what

Key takeaways from the episode

1. The fundamentals have not moved, even in a correction

Mike O’Malley’s answer to who can still justify buying here is refreshingly unromantic. Look at the long run: he points to Sydney median house prices rising 97% between 2014 and 2024, and roughly 500% across a 30 year view.

His test has nothing to do with timing the cycle. You need sufficient borrowing capacity, you need to survive the lender’s stress test with the buffers applied, and you need enough room to cope with the unexpected. Clear all three and, in his words, there is no reason you should not buy in Sydney at the moment.

Fail them and the correction is beside the point. As he puts it, do not get Sydney FOMO and go looking for a way in. Go back, get the fundamentals right, then circle back. And if Sydney’s price point genuinely does not work, look at markets where you can comfortably afford the purchase instead.

2. Sydney is a capital growth play, not a yield play

James Meldrum is blunt about what the numbers look like in the inner city areas he works across. A house in Balmain sits at roughly a 2.4% gross rental yield. Paddington, roughly 2.7%.

That makes it a hard asset to hold, and he says most people buying there are doing it for capital growth rather than holding cost. Which turns the question into a different one: can you actually hold it?

The costs people forget sit underneath the gross figure. Council rates, water rates and insurance are the obvious ones. Then there is property management, repairs, maintenance, and the renovation spend that keeps the asset worth what you think it is worth. If you are weighing an inner-city investment, the strata report is where most of that shows up, and it is one of the searches we run as part of our buying service.

On self-managing to save the management fee, his view is worth hearing: it can end up costing you more, because you are unlikely to be as across the legislation, as practised at handling a difficult tenancy situation, or as efficient at getting repairs and maintenance done.

3. You are buying a lifestyle, so make the decision structurally

Andrew Chan reframes it. Sydney prices are the highest in the country relative to income, and he describes them as second highest in the world. At that price point you are not just buying a property, you are buying a lifestyle. Which is exactly why the decision goes wrong when it is made on feel.

His fix is structure. If you cannot remove the emotion, at least be deliberate about how you go about it. Write down the actual non-negotiables: schooling, hospitals, aged care, proximity to family, and the triangle between work, home and whatever else fills your week.

Then test them. If Sydney will not accommodate the list right now, the alternatives are further out or a different state. But if the lifestyle genuinely is the goal, he notes he is seeing more young people seek advice early and build an investment base they can later convert into a bigger deposit, rather than settling for a compromise purchase.

4. Put buy versus rent on paper before you decide

Andrew models both scenarios for clients, and the input list is longer than most people expect: current job and likely pay rises, career changes, a first child, a second child, and land tax on anything they will hold.

He also models the policy risk. Loss of negative gearing is one scenario. Capital gains tax is another: he factors it in as it currently stands, and notes that if the discount were halved without grandfathering, it changes everything.

His point is not that you can predict any of this. It is that the timing and sequencing of those risks is what determines how you come out the other side, and that once people see the scenarios written down, the decision usually makes itself.

5. Scarcity is the real argument for Sydney

Mark Horvat calls Sydney the Ferrari of the Australian real estate market, and having worked in New York and London, he compares it to the way people live in the world’s other great cities: centrally located, often in apartments, because the culture, schools, transport and lifestyle are worth being close to.

He argues buyers routinely underestimate what is available to them. Internal space that the market has not priced properly. Pockets that remain undervalued. The median house price gets the headlines, he says, but there is a lot going on underneath it.

The structural argument is scarcity. You cannot build in the middle of the harbour, construction has become slow and expensive, and supply is constrained as a result. Gianni adds the geographic version: Sydney is hemmed in by the Hawkesbury River, the Blue Mountains and the Nepean River, so the city cannot simply spread.

6. So, buy now or sit out?

Asked directly, Mark does not hedge. He says there are still opportunities to buy, that he is long on the city, and that the qualifier is allocation: there are things you should buy and things you should not.

Where he sees the opening is on the selling side. Today’s sellers are often people who have held for 20 or 30 years, bought the apartment for a couple of hundred thousand, and are now close to retirement and want that capital working elsewhere. That, he says, is where you find stock with equity effectively already built in, whether because the size is better than the market is pricing or because it has been under rented for years.

Gianni makes a similar point about supply: rising rates, affordability and inflation may push some long held stock to market that otherwise would not have moved.

And the closing note from the episode is the one worth keeping: there are opportunities in Sydney, but do not take the decision lightly. Get advice specific to your circumstances, and have the right team behind you.

Getting the legal side right

The panel handles the finance, the buying and the numbers. The legal side of the transaction is where Titlespace comes in, and in a competitive market it is the part that most often gets left to the last minute.

Our part of a purchase starts with the contract of sale review and runs through to settlement. If your search is focused on the city itself, our page on working with a conveyancer in Sydney sets out how we handle local purchases, and a few things are worth knowing before you bid or sign.

1. Get the contract reviewed first. Ideally before you sign a contract or bid at auction. The earlier we are involved, the more we can do: reviewing the contract, identifying legal risks, checking key property information, negotiating terms where appropriate, and explaining it in plain English.
2. Know which cooling-off applies to you. Our guide to the cooling-off period for property in Sydney covers the NSW position and the state-by-state differences.
3. Order building, pest and strata reports. Building checks for structural issues, pest looks for termites and infestations, and strata reveals the financial and maintenance health of an apartment complex. On an inner city investment, the strata report is where the real holding costs show up.
4. Understand the deposit. It is usually 10% of the purchase price, paid to the agent’s trust account at exchange. Sometimes we can negotiate 5% deposits or delayed payment terms.
5. Plan for a realistic settlement window. Most settlements happen in 4 to 6 weeks, though timing depends on finance, contract terms and searches. Auctions and cash purchases can move faster.
6. If you are buying with someone else, choose the structure deliberately. The choice between joint tenants and tenants in common matters more than most buyers realise.

Buying your first place? Our rundown of what first-home buyers get wrong about conveyancing and our explainer on what a conveyancer actually does are both worth a read. Looking beyond Sydney, our conveyancing in NSW page covers the rest of the state and our conveyancing service locations show everywhere else we act.

Meet the Experts

All guests are trusted professionals with verified experience in the Australian property sector.

• Gianni Musumeci (host) – Investment advisor and founder of Leverage Property Advisers, specialising in property investment strategy.
• Mike O’Malley – Mortgage manager, lending strategist and General Manager of Rate Money Sydney City.
• Mark Horvat – Principal buyer’s agent at The Acquiry, with experience across the New York and London property markets.
• Andrew Chan – Certified Financial Planner and founder of Phoenix Private Wealth Management.
• James Meldrum – Property manager at BresicWhitney, working across inner city Sydney.

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More from Not Another Property Podcast

• Buying Property With Family in Australia: What to Get Right Before You Buy (S02E01)
• How to Sell Your Property Without Losing Sleep (Ep 5)
• Should You Use Your SMSF to Buy Property? (Ep 4)

The content of this blog post is intended as general information and should be considered broad guidance only. It does not constitute legal, financial or tax advice and should not be relied upon as such. The views expressed by guests are their own, were given at the time of recording and are general and factual in nature. Every property transaction is different, and we recommend seeking personalised advice from a qualified professional before making any investment or legal decisions.